Renewed Controversy Over Presidency

"We all decided on [early] elections. The people have shown their will. Now we have a new parliament before us. We have to analyse the people's will carefully. It would be wrong to be hasty."

"Following the people"

When journalists tried to pin him down on whether he would stand as a candidate again, Gül said: "There were elections in July because the parliament was unable to elect a president." He said that he had withdrawn his candidacy then in order not to tire parliament with useless voting, and added, "We have to follow the direction which the people and the public squares have shown us."

Gül said that the people had expressed their confidence in the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) government of the last four and a half years by returning it into power with 47 percent.

Resistance and alternatives

Meanwhile the CHP vice chairperson Mustafa Özyürek has said that the party would not support Gül's candidature.

However, according to the "Milliyet" newspaper, the AKP has prepared several scenarios, which include the possibilities of a female president or a candidate from outside of parliament.

A period of compromise

Prof. Dr. Serpil Sancar has suggested that the AKP will not insist on Abdullah Gül's candidature, and that Turkey will witness a period of compromise.

According to Sancar, the controversy over the presidential election is due to different interpretations of the identity and function of a president:

"The AKP is showing Turgut Özal and Süleyman Demirel as precedents for sending powerful party leaders to Cankaya [the president's residence in Ankara]. The other side is saying, 'No, the president's office is part of the state, not of the government."

In fact, she criticises the definition of the president's office in the constitution which has been inherited from the military junta of the 1980s. "It matches neither a parliamentary regime nor a semi-presidential system. It is a confused situation."

Sancar accuses both sides in the debate of making mistakes. While the AKP reduces democracy to elections by saying, "We will have a referendum on the presidential elections", the other side says, "I do not agree with you, but I can create various excuses."

Constitutional amendments

The current president, Ahmet Nejdet Sezer, has called for a referendum on the constitutional amendment package which the AKP prepared. According to the amendments, a president would be elected by the people (not by parliament anymore), and s/he would be able to have two five-year terms in office (rather than one seven-year term). Furthermore, the number of MPs needed for a quorum is to be lower.

Sezer had also vetoed the suggestion by the AKP to reduce a referendum period to 45 days. However, since parliament has passed this article again, the referendum date (set for 21 October) may be brought forward.

The AKP is thus calculating that it can get the amendments passed in the aftermath of its election victory. This would mean that it would create the conditions to elect a president on its own. While the constitutional court had announced its controversial decision that a quorum of 367 MPs (out of 550) was needed for the presidential elections, the AKP has now got 341 MPs in parliament.

Influence of General Staff

Sancar warned that if someone "like Gül" were elected as president, the General Staff would make problems for him/her at every step of the way in order to "make its presence felt". This would gradually strengthen the General Staff.

The General Staff has twice expressed its displeasure at Abdullah Gül's candidacy: once at a press conference on 12 April, and then in the "e-memorandum" published on its website on the night of the boycotted elections.

Sancar said, "The AKP leaders are surely aware of this. It is possible that Gül withdraws his candidacy. She interpreted Gül's comments of today (25 July) as "testing the atmosphere, putting out feelers". "This is a strategy of initial attack followed by compromise."

President's authority

Meanwhile there is no debate on the degree of authority which the constitution confers on the president, and which, ironically, current President Sezer found "excessive" when he was the president of the Constitutional Court. (NZ/TK/AG)