The study was performed by using polling techniques with 900 wage laborers who work in the 13 districts in İstanbul where wage labor is the heaviest.
A Common Point: Doubt that Turkey Will Be Accepted to the EU
Dr. Özgür Müftüoğlu ve Rana Çetin, who prepared the preliminary report of the research, said,
"The point that brings together a large number of both those against EU membership, whether because of concern about losing wages, or because of a nationalist concern that the country will be divided, and those who support EU membership, is the doubt that Turkey will actually be accepted into the EU."
Other findings of the research include:
* For those who view Turkish membership in the EU positively, the most important reasons are the expectations for the development of democracy and human rights (92.5 %), and social rights (92%). Expectations of economic development (80.3%) and the trade union rights (75.5%) follow these. Expectations on the subjects of solving the unemployment problem (63.5%) and reducing poverty (59.8%) remain at a lower level.
* For those who are against EU membership, the primary reasons are fears that Turkey's economic and political dependence on outside sources will increase (88.6%). This is followed by fears that agriculture will be negatively affected (80%). Next, 73.8% fear losing Cyprus, 71.6% the economy getting worse, and 61.1% negative effects on industry. In last place, with 60.3%, is a fear that EU membership will divide the country.
* 35.8% think that Turkey's membership in the EU would have positive effects for themselves, and 24.3% think it would have negative effects. 24.6% do not expect membership to have either a positive or a negative impact on their own lives.
* For those who expect positive effects, the most important reason is the expectation that social rights will improve (93.1%) and that it will become easier to exercise the right to organize in the political arena (81.9%). This factor is followed by the belief that they will be able to more freely exercise the right of association for trade unionism and union activities. The expectation that membership will improve the economic situation (65.1%) lags behind the expectations about democracy and social rights. At the same time, contrary to the general opinion, the idea that of EU countries' basic objections about Turkish membership, free movement rights together with productive power from Turkey coming to these countries in dense form came in last place at 57.6%.
* For those who expect negative effects from EU membership, the most important fear is loss of jobs (80.4%). This fear is followed by worries about falling wages (69.4%) and the loss of social rights (66.7%).
* The proportion who believe that Turkey will be granted full membership in the EU is only 23.9%. 62.3% do not believe that Turkey will be granted full membership. 12.9% said they do not have enough knowledge on the subject to decide. Even among those who have a positive view of EU membership, 45% do not believe that EU membership will become a reality. Despite having positive views of membership, 13.7 % did not share their thoughts on whether or not EU membership will happen. Of those with negative views about membership, a large portion, 85.1%, think it will not become a reality. 56.9% of those who remain undecided on the subject of membership also think it will not happen.
* The information sources that are the most important for influencing opinions on the subject of the EU are newspapers and television (60.9%). They are followed by government announcements (11.6%) and political parties (10.6%). Despite the fact that 68.3% of the workers consulted were members of trade unions, only 6.6% said that their thoughts on the subject of EU membership were influenced by union education and publications.
* 35.9% of wage laborers believe that the future will be worse than the present. In contrast, 35.8% were more optimistic about the future. 24.7% think the future will not be very different from the present. Women compared to men, middle-aged people and older compared to youth, and insured workers compared to uninsured workers have a more pessimistic view of the future.
* There is an important link between expectations for the future and the belief that Turkey will be able to join the EU: 63.3% of those who believe that Turkey will become an EU member have an optimistic view of the future, whereas only 24.6% of those who believe Turkey will not be allowed to join the EU have an optimistic view.
