As two fresh resignations further endangered Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's Democratic Left Party's (DSP) majority status, Turkish media reported July 15 that the country's parliament has been recalled for an extraordinary session to vote on the possibility of early elections. The September 1 session was called at the urging of the rightist Nationalist Action Party (MHP), and represents the most concrete threat to Ecevit's power to date. Meanwhile, Ecevit, who has steadfastly refused calls for his own resignation, suggested he might reconsider if Economy Minister Kemal Dervis were to also quit - a move Dervis announced July 11 but withdrew later that day. "If Mr. Dervis adopts a different stance, I may have to resign," MSNBC quoted Ecevit as saying. The growing turmoil in Turkey's government has observers worried about the country's position in the international community.
Observers particularly worry about Foreign Minister Ismail Cem's departure from the ruling Democratic Left Party, which he announced July 11. Cem is widely credited with a number of recent foreign policy successes. Parlaying his friendship with Greek Foreign Minister Yorgo Papandreou, he persuaded Turks to accept a rapprochement with their traditionally hostile neighbor. He also engineered the recent thawing of relations with Turkey's eastern neighbor, Armenia. [For background information, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Yet while these alliances hold some promise in the future, most Ankara observers worry about how Cem's departure might affect Turkey's relations with the European Union. The absence of Cem's leadership could endanger Turkey's bid for EU membership.
"For successive Turkish governments, foreign policy issues have not been strong factors in domestic debate," says Istanbul Bilgi University Political Science faculty chief Ilter Turan. "But the debate now is over how all this will impact on Turkey's ability to meet the EU criteria necessary for membership." For more than 10 years, Turkish foreign policy has focused on gaining EU membership. When the EU meets for a summit in Copenhagen in December, Turkish observers expect fresh clues about when the country might expect membership talks to begin. But to secure a place on the EU's calendar, Turkey must implement several domestic reforms, a challenge that this latest political crisis will make more difficult. These include establishing minority rights for the country's 12 million ethnic Kurds and abolishing the death penalty. (This would obviate the death sentence Turkey imposed on Kurdish militant Abdullah Ocalan in 2000.) In addition, Turkey has to make some concrete moves on resolving the long-running dispute over claims to land on Cyprus.
The crisis will force Ankara's politicians to reevaluate these stubborn problems. For some time, the MHP had resisted the idea of taking up Cypriot and Kurdish issues. Since the rightists comprised the second-largest bloc in the three-party coalition government, a stalemate had emerged. But now Cem's internationalism has yielded to the agenda of ministers much less sympathetic to EU-imposed reform, such as new Deputy Prime Minister Sukru Sina Gurel. Indeed, the government seems more likely to reject the EU's demands. "Of course, the current government doesn't want any break with the EU, but it could be heading that way if the MHP gets its way," Turan warns.
The MHP, which orchestrated the extraordinary session of parliament, is calling for a fresh election in November, while the smallest coalition partner, the pro-EU Motherland Party (ANAP) is calling for one at the end of September. The rightists want to scuttle the EU agenda, while the Motherland plan wants to give the government time to address the EU's concerns. Both clash with other critical regional issues, such as preparation for possible war in Iraq. And both, accordingly, erode confidence in Turkey's markets. "We're very aware that in the US and European press the idea of a war with Iraq has come forward again," says Hakan Avci, market analyst for the Istanbul-based Global Securities. "This issue seems to be heading our way in early 2003 and is a big risk factor." An attack on Iraq would not only be deeply unpopular with most ordinary Turks, but also would not win the support of most political leaders.
Yet with the government in chaos, it is hard to know how Turkish politicians will deal with aggressive American or British agendas. "Irrespective of which government is in power," says Turan, "Turkey is a little apprehensive about any US interventions. Of course, it's another question how much Turkey might be able to avoid getting involved in such a thing under US pressure."
Given this regional instability, an election could produce an unexpected result. The hope of the business and financial elite, along with many members of the urban middle class, is that Cem, along with Dervis and former deputy Prime Minister Husametin Ozkan, will form a "dream team" party to unite the center. But these hopes have little foundation, and could quickly turn to hostility. "Many people have lost their jobs or seen their income slashed since the financial crisis," says analyst Alp Tekince of Istanbul's Ekinciler Securities. "There's a lot of bitterness that the economic program introduced with the backing of the IMF has done little to support ordinary Turks."
Any surviving political party could co-opt this bitterness and remake Turkey's foreign policy, with major implications for the region and the country's role in it. "Everything depends on what kind of government we have until elections come along, and how soon those elections can happen," says Turan.
Editor's Note: Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul. (JG/NM)
